Far from helping to end the war in Ukraine, all the indications suggest that US President Donald Trump's mediation efforts are not only prolonging the conflict, but increasing the likelihood that Russia will ultimately emerge victorious.
Trump's pledge to end the conflict within 24 hours of taking office now seems but a distant memory.
Instead, his belief that he could use his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin to implement a lasting ceasefire has amounted to nothing, with Trump now conceding that the Russian autocrat has shown little interest in negotiating a peace deal.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump has informed European allies that Putin is not ready to end the war because he believes he is winning. Trump apparently made the acknowledgement during a call with European leaders that followed a May 19 phone call with Putin, with whom he claims to have a special relationship.
Trump's downbeat assessment to European leaders -- most of whom remain committed to supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia -- contrasts markedly with his upbeat public assessment of the conversation.
Trump declared after the two-hour call with Putin that the "tone and spirit of the conversation were excellent," and that Russia wanted to do "largescale" trade with the US once the war was over.
Trump insisted that the talks went well and would lay the ground for Moscow and Kyiv to immediately start negotiations towards a ceasefire for ending the conflict.
Trump even raised the prospect of newly-installed Pope Leo XIV hosting the peace talks at the Vatican, claiming it would be "very interested" in hosting the negotiations. Putin declined.
Indeed, far from showing any interest in ending Russia's military offensive in Ukraine, the Russian leader has given every intention that he intends to continue fighting until victory has been achieved.
Interviewed in a documentary marking his 25 years in power, Putin declared:
"We have enough strength and means to bring what was started in 2022 to a logical conclusion with the outcome Russia requires."
Nor does there appear to be any serious prospect that Trump will be willing to hit the Kremlin with further sanctions, let alone military encouragement, if it fails to show any serious interest in peace negotiations.
The American president had previously raised the prospect of hitting Russia with a new round of sanctions if it showed no interest in ending the war. Trump has been especially critical of Russia's continued missile and drone attacks against civilian targets in Ukraine.
After his surprise meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Rome during the funeral for Pope Francis last month, Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social:
"[T]here was no reason for Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days. It makes me think that maybe he doesn't want to stop the war, he's just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through 'Banking' or 'Secondary Sanctions?' Too many people are dying!!!"
Since then, Trump has appeared to back away from the threat, instead telling European and Ukrainian officials that it is their responsibility, not Washington's, to find a formula to end the conflict.
The Trump administration has even signalled that it will no longer act as a mediator in peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, claiming that neither side has shown much interest in engaging in meaningful peace negotiations.
The gulf between the two sides was clearly evident when representatives of the two countries held their first direct talks in three years, in Istanbul on May 16, a meeting that ended without major progress toward peace.
During the talks, the Russian delegation, a junior team led by Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky, reportedly demanded that Kyiv fully surrender the four Ukrainian regions that Moscow claims are Russian territory but does not fully occupy. The Russian negotiators threatened to seize more Ukrainian regions if this demand is not met.
The problem with Trump's hands-off approach to the Ukraine conflict is that it could ultimately prove counterproductive for the US and its allies, as the more Washington indicates it is losing interest in the conflict, the more encouraged Moscow becomes that it will ultimately achieve victory.
Such an outcome would be disastrous: if Putin achieves his goal of seizing territory by force in Ukraine, there will be nothing to prevent him from launching further military adventures in Europe, a move that could provoke a direct confrontation with Nato.
This outcome would be a disaster for the entire Nato alliance -- including the US, which would see its extensive trade ties with Europe threatened by Russian aggression.
In addition, Trump walking away from the conflict would be seen worldwide as a green light to other US adversaries, such as Iran and China, that it is open season, as the US is not serious about defending any allied territory.
As someone who shows a keen interest in expanding America's trade ties, Trump of all people should understand the disastrous implications another Putin-inspired war would have for the US economy.
The only way for Trump to prevent such a catastrophe is to abandon his hands-off approach to the Ukraine conflict and instead demonstrate unequivocally that he is not prepared to tolerate Russia achieving victory.
Fulfilling his pledge to impose secondary sanctions against Russia if it does not agree to a lasting ceasefire would be a good first step: it would make it clear that the US will continue to provide serious military support to Ukraine if Russia insists on continuing the war.
Trump, if he wants America to enjoy the benefits of peace and prosperity in Europe, must come to understand that withdrawing US involvement in the Ukraine conflict, whether it involves military or diplomatic action, is simply not an option.
Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
